Francois Fillon has lost his lead to Marine Le Pen in a new French poll produced by Ifop-Fiducial for Paris Match, iTélé and Sud-Radio. with former Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron winning against both in head to head match ups.
The month of January is rarely valuable for the favourite of the president election, and 2017 proves no different. Marine Le Pen has taken over control of the right against her opponent Fillon for the first time. Depending on the results of the Socialist presidential election on January 22rd, the former Prime Minister is expected to take only 24-25% of the vote.
With his powerbase eroding and the right wing, Fillon does little to help himself, hesitating with moves on Social Security reform and staying silent on much else. Marine Le Pen takes advantage of this power shift, up on average 2 points with an expected result in the first round of 26.5%. The polls suggest she will do less well in the second round however, losing 64%-36% when placed against Fillon.
The Macron effect
Emmanuele Macron, the former Minister of Economy under François Hollande continues his march forward. The founder of En Marche! packed out events at Nevers and Clermont-Ferrand last weekend as his opponents lagged in the polls. According to the scenerios, Macron would receive 17% of the vote if Manual Valls wins the Socialist primary, 19% (with Benoit Hamon or Arnaud Montebourg) and up to 20% (with Vincent Peillon). Directly against Le Pen, Macron would win 65% to 35% and 52% to 48% when placed against Fillon.
Valls to.. 10.5%
Among the four primary contenders for the Socalist elections, none of them would be expected to win a second round. They would finish at best fifth behind Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The candidate of the Left Party remains at its low (between 11.5 and 12%) despite its breakthrough on the Internet and YouTube. Manuel Valls has to settle for 10.5%, which makes the former prime minister the best socialist candidate. A consolation prize that proves that the sympathizers of the left do not believe the PS’s chances in 2017 especially since the renunciation of François Hollande. It should be said that the performance of Hamon (6%), Montebourg (5.5%) and Peillon (2.5%) are humiliating.