If Francois Fillon is elected as French President there are notable ramifications for the UK’s Brexit negotiations and by association the Pound.
This is according to a new research note from Barclays into what this key political event could mean for Europe and the UK.
And the good news for the UK is that the favourite – Fillon – is likely to be good for the UK.
Fillon’s vision for Europe is one that is similar to that of the UK’s – in which intergovernmental agreements play a greater role than the fostering of a European supersoverign state.
He advocates the return of powers to member sovereign states rather than deeper integration.
Barclays reckon this might help the UK’s Brexit negotiations as it would position France more closely to the UK’s view of what Europe should be than the previous French ideal of a suprasoverign European state power.
Fillon has also argued for a quick resolution to Brexit indicating he is unlikely to ‘dig his heels in’ during negotiations, which also seems to point to an easier more painless path for the UK’s departure.
Nevertheless, Barclays also notes how France has a much lower trade exposure to the UK compared to other EU countries, and so is not as economically reliant, making it still a potentially tough adversary during Brexit talks:
“Given France’s lower exposure to UK trade than other EU members, Mr. Fillon’s stance suggests that the UK still would face tough negotiations from France, but that more room could exist for both practical and philosophical agreement.”
“His EU reform vision also may lead to a better Brexit outcome as it hews much closer to the UK view.”