If the first round of the elections was this Sunday, which candidate would France vote for?
Polls are often accused of manipulating the public opinion, even corrupting it. The survey of Cevipof made by Ipsos Sopra Steria partnering with Le Monde shows the opposite of that. The poll, made between the 10th and 15th of January with 15,921 people, confirms the tendencies that have been observed these past weeks.
Francois Fillon‘s collapse. Since his big surprising victory at the primaries of the right the 29th of November, the former prime minister has raised more questions than confidence in the right wing. Whether it is his campaign team or the rally after the battles at the primaries, Fillon seems more hesitant than convincing.
The survey clearly shows that. During the preceding wave, he was credited with 26 to 29% in the polls, depending on the socialist candidate and the presence of Francois Bayrou.
Six weeks later, he’s credited with 23% to 25%, depending once again on the different possible circumstances. Even if he still gets 77% of the votes from The Republicans, that’s still 7 points less than in December.
Marine Le Pen strengthened. The erosion of Fillon can only give the FN candidate more hope. With 25 to 26% of the hypothetical votes, she is clearly in the lead, even though her campaign has not yet started.
In his analysis, Pascal Perrineau says that not only has Fillon’s loss in votes helped her, but she is also backed by extremely loyal voters. In 2012, she was only credited 19 to 20%. Today, she has 5 to 7 more points.
The Socialists are out. Without prematurely judging the outcome of their primaries and the momentum they could give their candidate, the socialists are in a situation of extreme weakness. Benoît Hamon and Arnaud Montebourg are only credited with 7% of votes. Since December, Montebourg has not progressed by the slightest.
Manuel Valls’ situation is equally dangerous. He is credited with 9 to 10%, depending if Francois Bayrou is a candidate or not. Either way, he has fallen behind by two points since December. Six weeks ago, when he declared that he would be a candidate, the former prime minister was still backed by 50% of the electors close to the Socialist Party. That figure has sunken to 41%.
Also, he had 35% of Hollande’s voters in the first round in 2012, but only 30% of them are considering to vote for him if he is elected in the primaries. Either way, the socialist candidate seems banned to a humiliating fifth place the night of the first round in the presidential elections.
Macron’s dynamic. After his declaration of candidature in late November, the former minister of economic affairs is the one who has scored the most points these past weeks, which the affluence of people at his meetings confirms. When he was credited with 17 to 19% before, he now passes the 20% mark of voting intentions if Montebourg or Hamon come out victorious of the primaries. That’s a progression of 3 or 4 points.
It is clear that this breakthrough for Macron has erased all chances for Francois Bayrou who was credited with 12 to 13% in spring of 2016, but now only gets 5%.
Mélenchon confirms. Finally, the candidate of Unsubmissive France movement confirms his position at 13 to 15%, depending if Valls, Montebourg or Hamon will be the socialist candidate. Mélenchon has a distance of 5 to 7 points to them, which justifies his demand for the votes of the left voters.
The forces on each side are clear if the socialist candidate is known. On the other hand, the battle for president is highly unpredictable.