A poll conducted 26/27 January by Kantar Sofres-One Point for Le Figaro, shows that François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron would get 22% and 21% in the first round of presidential elections, with Marine Le Pen taking the lead with 25%.
A great wind of uncertainty blows on the presidential elections. Conducted on 26 and 27 January, the poll by Kantar Sofres-OnePoint for Le Figaro, RTL and LCI shows that the fictitious jobs accusations against the Fillon couple have had an impact on voting intentions in the first round. Indeed, the survey measures a tightening between François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron now to elbow-to-elbow with respectively 22% and 21%. The qualification of Marine Le Pen in the second round remains the most probable hypothesis at this stage, with 25% of the votes. But whatever its final opponent, the president of the National Front is beaten in a duel. As for the candidature of Benoît Hamon, credited with 15% of the voting intentions, it reverses the hierarchy on the left. Indeed, the deputy of Yvelines is ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, relegated to fifth place with only 10% of voting intentions.
Marine Le Pen beaten in the second round in all cases
“At three months of the presidential election, we can speak of a gap between Fillon and Macron which is now only the thickness of the line,” says Emmanuel Riviere, the French general manager of Kantar Public. “In this particular context of the revelation of the case of fictitious jobs, the qualification of Fillon in the second round is no longer guaranteed,” according to Emmanuel Rivière, who says that “the stalling of candidate of the right and center from his dominant position in the aftermath of his victory at the primary level is not entirely due to his legal troubles but to a decline in his campaign momentum.”
Another sign of concern for Fillon was that he would beat Le Pen only 60% against 40% of the vote, while Macron would widen the gap to 65% of votes against 35% for the president of the National Front. Emmanuel Rivière believes that this differential “is as much due to the recent disappointments of the former prime minister as to the very rigid positioning that he adopted after the primary on both the social and societal questions”. “The choice between Fillon and Le Pen is complicated for a left-wing voter,” summarizes the CEO France of Kantar Public.