According to a BVA-Salesforce poll released on Saturday, Emmanuel Macron will now be ahead of François Fillon and qualify for the second round of the presidential election against Marine Le Pen.
Emmanuel Macron continues his breakthrough in the polls and is now somewhere between 21% and 22%, much closer to the president of the National Front, who remains stable at 25%. This is according to a BVA-Salesforce survey published this Saturday for Orange and the regional Press.
Credited between 16% and 20% in early January, depending on the winner in the primary of the left , the former minister of economy is up 1 to 6 points in a month.
Hamon takes the lead on Mélenchon
For his part, François Fillon suffers from the suspicion of fictitious jobs of his wife. The winner of the Republican primary, who was credited with 24% in early January, now receives only 18% to 20% of voting intentions. A drop of 4 to 6 points that would not allow him to qualify for the second round of the presidential election.
Boosted by his victory in the primary of the left, Benoit Hamon wins 10 points and has gained the upper hand on Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The candidate of the Socialist Party collects 16% to 17% of voting intentions, against 11% to 11.5% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
François Bayrou would receive 5% of votes, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (sovereignist) 2% and ecologist Yannick Jadot 1% to 1.5%.
A solid electoral base for Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen can always count on potential voice of one voter in four (25%) and retains a highly symbolic first place in the first round.
However, her difficulty lies in her ability to win in the second round. She would lose to Emmanuel Macron (34% against 66%) or François Fillon (40% against 60%) if he was present in the second round.
This survey was carried out online from 1 to 2 February with 955 people aged 18 and over. The margin of error is be 1.4 points to 3.1 points. Voting intentions are not predictions of results, they give an indication of the state of power relations and dynamics on the day of the survey.